Margin of Error

In an attempt to make some sense of poll numbers that show Kerry up 5, then Bush up 10, then dead heat, then…blahblahblah, I am going to record evry poll result I come across right here.

Reuters-Zogby->Kerry 45%-Bush45% (+- 2.9)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup-> Kerry 49%- Bush 48% (+- 3.5)

4 comments on this foolish article:

Teresa said...

I think polls are not suposed to make sence...just to look impressive...but don't be impressed!

Aaron said...

What boggles my mind is the concept of a scientific poll. Supposedly (from my understanding), the group polls a selection of people virtually identical (in race, gender, age, income class, etc.) to the makeup of the US as a whole. First of all, how do they do that? Secondly, how do they know that all middle-income white men feel the same way as the 300 middle-income white men they poll?

Teresa said...

TOTALLY!

I think they say 'scientific' to sound even more impressive! I can't wait till this ellection is over...even here in Canada we are getting sick of it...and normally we don't even care!

Aaron said...

I'm really not sick of it at all. In fact, I like election season. I just wish it was time to vote, though. This first Tuesday of every fourth November is like Christmas to me. You never know what exciting suprise you might get. (Except in 1996. That was more like seeing your only present three weeks early and finding out it was a 3 pack of underwear.)